Cohort-normalised vs 0 channels.
What is TechFlow 深潮 | 加密货币&区块链新闻?
TechFlow 深潮 | 加密货币&区块链新闻 is a Telegram channel. With over 18.4K subscribers, it is a steadily growing community.
What goes into the 26.5
Channel activity.
Activity data not yet enriched. MTProto sync runs every ~20 min.
📋 TechFlow 夜话「预测市场」 | 08 月 01 日 睡前一分钟,掌握预测市场关键脉动 本栏目内容由 AI 基于公开信息整理,仅供信息参考。 📖 综述 中东停火概率大跌 15 点,美联储 9 月加息预期升温,民主党中期选举胜算不足五成 🔥 重点事件 1️⃣ 以色列与伊朗停火能否持续到 8 月底? 目前市场给出 74% 的概率,比昨天跌了 15 个点。 市场给以色列和伊朗 8 月继续停火打了 74% 的概率,但 24 小时内暴跌 15 个点,这意味着每 4 个交易者里就有 1 个认为本月会重燃战火。这个跌幅相当于从“基本确定”降到了“大概率但有风险”。 近期中东局势确实在升温,伊朗对以色列 7 月空袭的报复行动尚未完全落地,地区代理人冲突仍在持续。历史上看,这类停火协议在首月内破裂的概率约在 30%—40% 之间,当前 74% 的定价可能还是偏乐观。…READ FULL ▾
Stillhereok2 和 Mr-Krabs 合计建仓 $713 做多停火,但相对 71.7 万 的日成交量,这个仓位影响力有限。当前价格偏高,适合小仓位做空停火概率,目标 60%—65% 区间。 今天有 2 个历史胜率超过 60% 的老手钱包同时买入 No 方向,合计投入 $713,形成了方向共识。 👉 https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963 🔍 Stillhereok2: https://polymarket.com/profile/0x33e27ac64a453337cfcea8345c705a407c573a1b 🔍 Mr-Krabs: https://polymarket.com/profile/0x8597ca63e722d6216bfc3057591fdc67ec49daee 2️⃣ 美联储 9 月会议后加息 25 个基点? 目前市场给出 60% 的概率,比昨天涨了 4 个点。 市场给美联储 9 月加息 25 个基点打了 60% 的概率,24 小时内上涨 4 个点,这意味着交易者认为加息比不加息的可能性高出 50%。这个定价反映了市场对通胀反弹的担忧,已经超过了对经济放缓的恐惧。 从基本面看,如
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What is TechFlow 深潮 | 加密货币&区块链新闻?▾
TechFlow 深潮 | 加密货币&区块链新闻 is a Telegram channel. With over 18.4K subscribers, it is a steadily growing community.
How many subscribers does TechFlow 深潮 | 加密货币&区块链新闻 have?▾
TechFlow 深潮 | 加密货币&区块链新闻 has 18.4K subscribers. It has gained 13 subscribers in the last 30 days.
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Sources: Telegram MTProto (channel metadata, posts) · channel_history (daily subscriber snapshots). Composite score recomputed each sync against the index cohort.
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